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Forgeplan

forgeplan decay

forgeplan decay looks ahead at the valid_until fields on every EvidencePack and shows which decisions will lose R_eff soon. Remember: expired evidence does not disappear — it caps at 0.1 (stale, not absent). Because R_eff is a weakest-link function, one expiring piece of evidence can drag a previously-green decision into the red.

This is the tool for planning a Refresh sprint: see who is about to go stale, schedule a RefreshReport, and renew the evidence before it bites.

When to use

Section titled “When to use”
  • Start of the month: “which decisions will need re-verification this sprint?”
  • Before relying on an old decision — is its R_eff about to drop?
  • After bulk-creating evidence with the same expiry — spot the cliff before it hits.
  • Session start alongside forgeplan health for the full “what needs attention” view.

When NOT to use

Section titled “When NOT to use”
  • When you have no evidence at all (R_eff already 0) — nothing to decay.
  • As a one-shot gate — use stale for hard expiry detection.

Usage

Section titled “Usage”
forgeplan decay

Options

Section titled “Options”
  -h, --help     Print help
  -V, --version  Print version

Examples

Section titled “Examples”

See upcoming decay impact

Section titled “See upcoming decay impact”
Terminal window
forgeplan decay

Output:

Evidence decay report
─────────────────────
EVID-012  expires in  14d  PRD-003: R_eff 0.90 → 0.70
EVID-018  expires in  30d  ADR-005: R_eff 1.00 → 0.10  ⚠ cliff
EVID-021  expires in  45d  PRD-007: R_eff 0.80 → 0.60
EVID-030  expires in  60d  PRD-011: R_eff 0.90 → 0.80


4 evidence packs expiring within 60 days
2 decisions will drop below 0.7 (trust threshold)

Feed into a sprint plan

Section titled “Feed into a sprint plan”

Combine with stale and health:

Terminal window
forgeplan decay          # what's coming
forgeplan stale          # what's already expired
forgeplan health         # overall blind-spot view

Those three commands are the full “refresh backlog” picture.

Output interpretation

Section titled “Output interpretation”
  • expires in Xd — days until valid_until.
  • R_eff X → Y — current cached R_eff vs projected after decay.
  • ⚠ cliff — flagged when a single expiry takes R_eff across a trust boundary (0.9 → 0.1 is a cliff; 0.9 → 0.8 is not).
  • Cliffs are the priority: schedule a forgeplan new refresh "Re-verify EVID-XXX" before the date.

How it fits the workflow

Section titled “How it fits the workflow”
monthly review → decay → plan refresh sprint → renew evidence → score

Decay is preventive. Stale is reactive. Run decay before evidence expires; run stale to catch the ones you missed.

See also

Section titled “See also”